From the Sidelines
By: Ray G. Talimio Jr.
“Elections are won by timing, not headlines”
Vice President Sara Duterte’s reported intention to seek the presidency in 2028 has reignited debate. Is it premature, or is it calculated positioning?
History shows that Vice Presidents have reached the presidency through constitutional succession as well as elections. When President Ramon Magsaysay died in 1957, Vice President Carlos P. Garcia assumed office and later won his own mandate. In 2001, Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo took her oath after President Joseph Estrada resigned and subsequently secured a fresh electoral victory in 2004. The 1987 Constitution deliberately places the Vice President one step away from Malacañang.
Electoral timing, however, is rarely linear. Before Benigno Aquino III consolidated the 2010 race, others had already signaled their intent. In 2016, established contenders were in motion long before Rodrigo Duterte formally entered and altered the field. In 2022, early speculation did not dictate final alignments. The first to declare often becomes the first to absorb sustained scrutiny.
Political analyst Antonio Contreras suggests that early declarers rarely end up winning. That observation reflects patterns rather than a rigid rule. Early positioning can energize a base, but it can also freeze alliances prematurely and trigger counter coalitions.
Complicating the 2028 landscape is Vice President Duterte’s continued resilience in popularity and trust surveys. While other national leaders such as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Senate President, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and the Chief Justice have experienced rating fluctuations, her numbers have shown relative stability and strength. Surveys are snapshots, not outcomes, but durability matters.
It is only a little over two (2) years before the 2028 elections. In Philippine politics, that is still enough time for alliances to shift, economic conditions to influence public mood, and political capital to rise or erode.
An early declaration is not destiny. It is a wager on organization, discipline, and timing.
2028 remains open.
Sources: Publicly available historical records on presidential succession; survey reports as cited by national polling firms.
Photo Credits: ABS-CBN News/File.
Disclaimer: This column reflects the personal analysis and opinion of the author based on publicly available information.
About the Author: Ray G. Talimio Jr. is a Certified Public Accountant and veteran columnist on governance, economic policy, and public accountability. He is a Past President and Past Chairman of the Board of the Cagayan de Oro Chamber of Commerce and Industry Foundation Inc., a former Co-Chairman of the Regional Development Council Region X Economic Development Committee, a National Officer of the Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants, a former BIMP-EAGA Chairperson, and is an active member of the Association of CPAs in Public Practice.
###
