The summer heat is hitting us hard not only literally, and but also on the country’s economy, in this case on our Balance Of Payments (BOP) under the BBM administration. In March 2024, we had a BOP surplus of $1.2 billion. This March 2025, our BOP hit an alarming deficit amounting to $2.0 billion.
Indeed, the heat index is hitting us hard not only on our health, but more so on our PH economy, half-way through the term of BBM. In just a year, there was a staggering turnaround of our BOP amounting to $3.2billion.
To an ordinary man on the street, these numbers may mean nothing to him. First and foremost, his daily survival matters most to him, and he might not feel it yet indirectly, he is affected by the alarming economic numbers.
And this economic heat adds on the pain of every Juan amid boiling political scenarios across the country. And of course, this is to mention as well the heating up of loose campaign promises ahead of the May 12 mid-term election.
Lets go back the numbers: our Cumulative BOP from January to March 2025 now sits at a $3.0 billion deficit, compared to a $238 million surplus last year. Our BOP tracks all the money coming in and out of the country. When it is negative, we are spending more abroad than we are earning.
In this case, this is because the national government is drawing from foreign currency reserves to pay off ballooning foreign debts. That said, our country is borrowing more than we can earn. The result: we are burning through our financial buffer just to stay afloat and alive.
To say it bluntly now, our import dependency is bleeding us dry and this sends to a widening trade deficit—importing more goods than we export. Bad thing is — we are not producing enough to offset it. Therefore, our economy is not generating enough revenue to pay for its consumption.
If we continue heating up our foreign reserves to service debt, likely scenario will be felt by 2028:
• Foreign currency buffer runs dangerously low
• Peso weakens sharply, pushing inflation higher
• Debt payments eat up more of the national budget
• Social services suffer, poverty rises
• Credit rating may drop, making future loans even more expensive
• Economic sovereignty is compromised—foreign lenders start calling the shots
Yet with all these scenarios, our government is acting like normal as it were.
The holabalou on remittances by OFWs, foreign investments, and borrowings are still coming in but it appears in trickles.
For now,
this I can say:
If we do not fix our fundamentals like production, exports, innovation, and debt arrangement— then this country would not only lose its cash, it will lose control.
With the constant bullying of China on WPS and the unwanted tariffs of Trump, where do we go from here?
Indeed, the economic heat this time of political season is hitting us hard —down the drain.
