When the region is divided, problems escalate. While the Iran–Israel rivalry is central, it is only one piece of a much larger geopolitical puzzle. The Middle East today is characterized by fragmentation, competing alliances, and overlapping conflicts that extend far beyond bilateral disputes. The region’s instability is rooted in both historical legacies and contemporary power struggles.
One of the most significant divisions lies between regional powers, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia. This rivalry is often framed in sectarian terms—Shia versus Sunni—but in reality, it is primarily a competition for regional dominance (Gause, 2014). Iran’s influence extends through a network of allied groups and governments, including Syria and Hezbollah, while Saudi Arabia has historically aligned with Sunni-majority states and Western powers.
The emergence of new diplomatic frameworks has further complicated this landscape. The Abraham Accords of 2020 marked a significant shift, as several Arab states normalized relations with Israel. This realignment reflects a growing convergence of interests between Israel and certain Arab governments, particularly in countering Iranian influence (Lynch, 2020). However, this normalization has also deepened divisions within the region, as other actors continue to reject Israel’s legitimacy.
Another critical factor is the enduring impact of colonial-era border formation. The Sykes–Picot Agreement and subsequent mandates imposed artificial boundaries that often ignored ethnic and sectarian realities. These borders contributed to internal conflicts in states such as Iraq and Syria, where diverse populations were forced into single political entities (Fromkin, 1989).
External powers continue to play a decisive role. The United States remains a dominant actor, maintaining military bases and alliances across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have expanded their influence, seeking strategic and economic opportunities. This multipolar involvement transforms regional conflicts into arenas of global competition (Hinnebusch, 2015).
Economic factors, particularly oil, also shape regional dynamics. Control over energy resources has long attracted foreign intervention and intensified competition among local actors. While oil wealth has brought prosperity to some states, it has also exacerbated inequality and governance challenges in others (Ross, 2012). The interplay of these factors creates a volatile environment where local disputes can quickly escalate into regional crises. The Iran–Israel conflict, therefore, must be understood as part of this broader system of rivalries and alliances.
In general, the Middle East is not a unified political space but a mosaic of competing interests. The divisions within the region amplify the impact of any single conflict, making resolution more complex and escalation more likely.
A sustainable solution to the region’s fragmentation requires shifting from competitive rivalry to inclusive regional cooperation. This can be done, in particular, between key powers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. Then, establishing a multilateral security dialogue—supported by global actors like the United States, Russia, and China—can help reduce proxy conflicts, manage strategic competition, and promote mutual confidence-building.
Next is expanding diplomatic frameworks such as the Abraham Accords into a broader, more inclusive platform that also addresses unresolved political issues. These include territorial disputes and governance challenges, and are essential. Simultaneously, economic cooperation—especially in energy and development—should be prioritized to reduce inequality and dependence on conflict-driven politics. Ultimately, stability will depend on transforming the Middle East from a battlefield of competing interests into a cooperative regional system grounded in dialogue, shared security, and long-term development.
Dr. Djuwari is a scholar who received an Award of Peace and Humanity from the World United Humanitarian Organization (UHO), based in the UK, in 2026. The President of the International Association of Scholarly Publishers, Editors, and Reviewers (IASPER) lives in Surabaya, Indonesia.
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